The results of the 2050 State of the Great Lakes Report (SOGL)—the authoritative assessment of the health of our waters—classify the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay ecosystem as "Fair to Good" with an "Unchanging" trend.
According to the report, the Lake Huron basin remains a reliable source of high-quality drinking water and offers excellent opportunities for swimming and recreation. However, the report highlights several key "Fair" and "Poor" indicators that demand our attention:
Nutrients and Algae: While offshore phosphorus is stable, nearshore areas are prone to nuisance algal growth (Cladophora). Specifically, the southern end of Georgian Bay remains a focal point for these blooms.
Invasive Species: This sub-indicator remains "Poor." Filter-feeding Quagga Mussels have significantly lowered productivity in offshore waters and are the primary driver behind localized algae growth near our shores.
Fish and Wildlife: Fish-eating and colonial-nesting waterbirds are currently assessed as "Poor" due to low populations. While Lake Trout and Walleye populations are stable or improving, consumption advisories remain in effect for certain species due to lingering contaminant levels.
Coastal Wetlands: Georgian Bay and Lake Huron contain 30% of all Great Lakes wetlands. These are in Fair to Good condition, though northern regions generally show better health than southern areas, which face more stress from agricultural runoff.
Read the full "report card" here.
Innovative Remediation: Activated Carbon
Although few presentations addressed Georgian Bay directly, a recently completed project at the Thomson River reservoir on Lake Superior was of particular interest. Researchers deposited more than 20,000 tonnes of activated carbon, which will bind to contaminants in the sediment and prevent their movement up the food chain—a technique that may eventually prove vital for our own industrial harbours!
Read more about the potential effects of activated carbon here,
After a series of historically low-ice winters, the Great Lakes made a significant comeback in 2026. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirms that ice coverage across the basin peaked at 58% on February 9, marking the highest ice levels seen since 2019.
While the last few years saw the lakes struggle to freeze, 2026 surpassed long-term averages across the board. The surge was driven by an intense cold spell in late January and early February, allowing ice to build rapidly.
Where the Lakes Topped Out:
Lake Huron: A major overachiever, surging to 77% coverage (well above its 50% average). As of late February, it remains nearly half-covered at 47%.
Lake Erie: Came within four percentage points of freezing over entirely, peaking at 96% (average is 67%).
Lake Superior: Topped out at 53%, surpassing its long-term average of 48%.
Lake Ontario: More than doubled its typical coverage, reaching 42% compared to the 19% average.
Despite the strong start, the thaw has been swift. In just two weeks following the peak, the Great Lakes lost approximately 43% of their ice cover due to a shift toward warmer February temperatures.
Ice coverage plays a vital role in the Great Lake ecosystem. It protects shorelines from erosion caused by winter storms, helps regulate water temperatures for the coming spring, and supports the spawning cycles of various native fish species.
Read more here.
Listen to Meredith Denning discuss icCBC's Ontario Morning here.
Lake Michigan-Huron is 3 inches below its level at this time last year. From a month ago, the water levels on Lake Michigan-Huron are up 1 inch. Lake Superior water levels are the same, while Lakes St. Clair, Erie & Ontario are down 2, 4 & 1 inches, respectively. Lakes Superior & Ontario levels are up 5 & 4 inches, respectively, from last year, while Lakes Michigan-Huron & Erie are lower by 3 & 8 inches, respectively, than they were at this time last year. Lake St. Clair levels are currently the same as they were last year. Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie & Ontario are 4, 11, 3, 7 & 3 inches below their long-term February averages. All the lakes remain well below their February record highs. In a month, Lake Superior levels are predicted to remain the same. Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie & Ontario levels are expected to rise by 2, 4, 7 & 5 inches, respectively. Lake Superior’s outflow through the St. Marys River is project to be near average in February. Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow through the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair’s outflow through the Detroit River, Lake Erie’s outflow through the Niagara River, and Lake Ontario’s outflow through the St. Lawrence River are projected to be slightly below average in February. This report below shows the most recent month of precipitation and outflows published by Level News: With regard to the forecast graph below, and the more recently updated first graph in this report, the USACE is predicting that the most likely outcome is that the Lake Michigan-Huron level will continue to drop through January and start to level off in February. Monthly mean water levels for the previous year and the current year to date are shown as a solid line on the hydrographs. A projection for the next six months is given as a dashed line. This projection is based on the present condition of the lake basin and anticipated future weather. The shaded area shows a range of possible levels over the next six months dependent upon weather variations. Current and projected levels (solid and dashed lines) can be compared with the 1918-2021 average levels (dotted line) and extreme levels (shown as bars with their year of occurrence). The legend below further identifies the information on the hydrographs. Satellite imagery of Georgian Bay is not clear, but the graph below shows the ice coverage on Lake Huron for February 27, 2026 compared to the average ice coverage over the past 50 years.
On February 12, the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada (IAAC) hosted a hybrid information session at Meaford Hall to clarify the federal regulatory roadmap for TC Energy's proposed Pumped Storage Project. The session drew strong community interest, with over 100 residents attending in person and more than 150 participating online.
The meeting featured presentations from several federal departments, including Environment and Climate Change Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs Canada, and the Department of National Defence. These agencies outlined their roles in the upcoming impact assessment process, which will evaluate the project’s footprint on the 4th Canadian Division Training Centre lands and its potential environmental impacts.
TC Energy’s proposal includes a 374-acre reservoir located 150 metres above the Georgian Bay shoreline. The facility would pump water from the Bay into the reservoir during off-peak hours and release it through turbines to generate electricity during peak demand.
While the session focused on the process rather than the merits of the project, many residents and stakeholders attended to voice opposition. Primary concerns discussed include:
Environmental Impact: Risks to fish populations and the broader Georgian Bay ecosystem.
Safety: Potential flooding risks to nearby homeowners should the reservoir fail.
Contamination: The risk of disturbing contaminated soil on the military base during excavation.
Economic Viability: The multi-billion dollar cost of this project versus more efficient, alternative energy storage solutions like batteries.
Next Steps
The formal federal impact assessment has not yet begun, but will be triggered once TC Energy submits its Initial Project Description (IPD) to the IAAC. This filing will launch a 30-day public comment period, the first of many opportunities for GBA and our members to submit formal feedback.
The GBA will continue to monitor this file closely and notify members when the official comment period opens.
Learn more about the meeting here.
Lake Michigan-Huron is 5 inches below its level at this time last year. From a month ago, the water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair & Erie are down 2, 1, 4 & 3 inches, respectively, while Lake Ontario levels are the same. Lakes Superior, St. Clair & Ontario levels are up 3, 4 & 3 inches, respectively, from last year, while Lakes Michigan-Huron & Erie are lower by 5 & 8 inches, respectively, than they were at this time last year. Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie & Ontario are 4, 12, 5, 6 & 4 inches below their long-term February averages. All the lakes remain well below their February record highs. In a month, Lake Superior levels are predicted to fall by 1 inch. Lakes Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie & Ontario levels are expected to rise by 1, 4, 5 & 2 inches, respectively. Lake Superior’s outflow through the St. Marys River is project to be near average in February. Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow through the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair’s outflow through the Detroit River, Lake Erie’s outflow through the Niagara River, and Lake Ontario’s outflow through the St. Lawrence River are projected to be slightly below average in February. This report below shows the most recent month of precipitation and outflows published by Level News: With regard to the forecast graph below, and the more recently updated first graph in this report, the USACE is predicting that the most likely outcome is that the Lake Michigan-Huron level will continue to drop through January and start to level off in February. Monthly mean water levels for the previous year and the current year to date are shown as a solid line on the hydrographs. A projection for the next six months is given as a dashed line. This projection is based on the present condition of the lake basin and anticipated future weather. The shaded area shows a range of possible levels over the next six months dependent upon weather variations. Current and projected levels (solid and dashed lines) can be compared with the 1918-2021 average levels (dotted line) and extreme levels (shown as bars with their year of occurrence). The legend below further identifies the information on the hydrographs. Satellite imagery of Georgian Bay is not clear, but the map below shows the ice coverage on all the Great Lakes for February 15, 2026, and the graph below it shows how the ice cover compares to past coverage for this date. According to the graph, Lake Huron’s ice coverage currently sits at 68.8% which is the highest rate of ice coverage since 2015.
Lake Michigan-Huron is 4 inches below its level at this time last year. From a month ago, the water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair & Erie are down 2, 0, 2 & 2 inches, respectively, while Lake Ontario levels are up 2 inches. Lakes Superior, St. Clair & Ontario levels are up 2, 1 & 4 inches, respectively, from last year, while Lakes Michigan-Huron & Erie are lower by 4 & 8 inches, respectively, than they were at this time last year. Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie & Ontario are 4, 12, 2, 5 & 3 inches below their long-term February averages. All the lakes remain well below their February record highs. In a month, Lake Superior levels are predicted to fall by 1 inch. Lakes St. Clair, Erie & Ontario levels are expected to rise by 2, 3 & 1 inches, respectively, while Lake Michigan-Huron levels are expected to remain the same. Lake Superior’s outflow through the St. Marys River is project to be near average in February. Lake Michigan-Huron’s outflow through the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair’s outflow through the Detroit River, Lake Erie’s outflow through the Niagara River, and Lake Ontario’s outflow through the St. Lawrence River are projected to be slightly below average in February. This report below shows the most recent month of precipitation and outflows published by Level News: With regard to the forecast graph below, and the more recently updated first graph in this report, the USACE is predicting that the most likely outcome is that the Lake Michigan-Huron level will continue to drop through January and start to level off in February. Monthly mean water levels for the previous year and the current year to date are shown as a solid line on the hydrographs. A projection for the next six months is given as a dashed line. This projection is based on the present condition of the lake basin and anticipated future weather. The shaded area shows a range of possible levels over the next six months dependent upon weather variations. Current and projected levels (solid and dashed lines) can be compared with the 1918-2021 average levels (dotted line) and extreme levels (shown as bars with their year of occurrence). The legend below further identifies the information on the hydrographs. Satellite imagery of Georgian Bay is not clear, but the map below shows the ice coverage on all the Great Lakes for February 8, 2026, and the graph below it shows how the ice cover compares to past coverage for this date. According to the graph, Lake Huron's ice coverage currently sits at 67.6% which is the highest rate of ice coverage since 2014.
The Governments of Canada and the United States have released the State of the Great Lakes (SOGL) 2025 report, a comprehensive overview of the Great Lakes ecosystem. This binational effort assesses the health of the Great Lakes, providing insights into trends, challenges, and progress.
The report highlights:
Great Lakes are a reliable source of drinking water
Beaches are generally safe for swimming
Progress on reducing toxic chemicals and invasive species
Ongoing challenges with nutrient pollution (esp. Lake Erie) and invasive species like Zebra and Quagga Mussels
Georgian Bay specifics can be found on page 38 of the report.
GBA Executive Director, Meredith Denning, will attend the Great Lakes Public Forum next week where the results of the SOGL will be presented.
The full report can be viewed here.
In December, the Canada Water Agency and the Toronto Regional Conservation Authority hosted the second annual Great Lakes Freshwater Ecosystem Initiative (GLFWI) coastal symposium in Burlington, Ontario. Despite wintry weather, nearly 80 attendees shared a day of presentations and discussions. The event featured presentations and panels on: Coastal resilience & adaptation Restoration approaches Science & modelling Collaboration & engagement Our GBA Associations even got a shout-out from Professor Chow-Fraser’s team, which is developing an assessment system to see how Georgian Bay wetlands cope with changes in water levels. GBA members have hosted her researchers many times over the years, a tradition that will continue in 2026. Thanks so much for your support for this work! See the webinar and the symposium slides here.
Representatives of GBA’s Water Committee met with MP Scott Aitchison at his constituency office in Huntsville to discuss the need for federal regulation of wastewater from the growing cruise ship industry on Georgian Bay. For the past three years, Transport Canada has issued one-year interim orders on this topic, but a lasting set of regulations that’s tailored to the Bay’s unique ecology is needed. MP Aitchison agreed, and GBA looks forward to working with him and other Bay MPs to raise the profile of this topic in 2026. Read more about the cruise ship issue in Georgian Bay here.